Détails: Mis à jour : 3 octobre 2024

Event predictions

This page presents a selection of "best" events. These are also available through the Occultation Portal.

Please check Occult Watcher Cloud, for details and updates, in the specific feed of the ACROSS campaign.
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Here below you can find predictions for events by:

The asteroid (65 803) Didymos. This is the main target of ACROSS, and the target of the DART/Hera first planetary defence missions.
The 9 potential secondary targets of Hera (ESA) in the next 5 years: (29 886) Randytung, (42 532) 1995 OR, (54 212) 2000 HJ89, (88 992) 2001 TJ72, (95 802) Francismuir, (122 764) 2000 SX69, (169 549) 2002 EG105, (188 708) 2005 TR99 and (477 416) 2009 WW1.

NEAs with orbits that allow predictions with a decent probability of success, with a list of about 30 NEAs chosen according to their orbital quality (σ_a < 1e-9 au), size (D > 0.5 km) and presence in the Gaia DR3 database.

For each group, a table and images are published for the most accessible events in the following two months, and files with the full list of predicted events in XML format (produced by Occult) are shared at the end. It should be noted that, due to the low number of restrictions we apply in the XML files, they may have more than 20 000 events, in particular the general NEA files. 20 000 is the standard limit of events for Occult, as it claims that the processes involving a larger amount of events can slow down significantly. However, it is possible to raise this limit up to 100 000, the maximum Occult allows. To do that, it is necessary to enter the "Maintenance" section, choose "User Settings", go to "11. Asteroid occultations - Search and Display", where you can edit the limit. If necessary, the team can also provide smaller files upon request, for those who choose to keep this limit.

By accessible, we mean events with:

- Star Magnitude (Mv) <= 14.0;

- Maximum Duration (s) >= 0.2 (for the general NEA only);

- Path crosses significant amount of landmass on Earth's surface (not just oceans);

- Solar Elongation >= 45º;

- For the more general NEA events only, whether the path uncertainty is less than 5x the object's Diameter.

The tables have the essential information of each event: date, target asteroid's permanent number and name, target star's catalogue name and number, RA/Dec coordinates and Mv magnitude, and quantities related to the event, such as expected drop (in magnitudes), maximum duration (in seconds) and the general area of the globe where the event is visible. Also contained the Occu;t Map for every event. For the most promising Didymos events (red lines) and when requested by observers, the last column holds the .kmz file of the event with the predicted path and the topographic corrections applied.

IMPORTANT: The .xml tables are only propagated once for the whole month for simplicity, while all the events displayed here and in OWC have been propagated to the date of occultation. So the maps in the xml and these images may not match perfectly. If you are insterested in observing an event not included in OWC or this website, please contact the ACROSS team, in order to have access to the most precise map we can get for it.

Interesting events in the near future

Didymos

Date	Star		RA			Dec			Conditions			Zone	Map	.kmz
Date	Catalogue	Number	h	m	s	d	m	s	Mv	Drop	Duration	Zone	Map	.kmz
10/01/2024	UCAC4	305-229717	18	20	45	-29	-5	-9	13,8	6	0.08	Europe
10/05/2024	UCAC4	306-243129	18	30	23	-28	-57	-29	13,7	6,1	0.07	Australia
10/08/2024	UCAC4	306-250657	18	38	20	-28	-49	-30	13,4	6,5	0.06	Australia
10/12/2024	UCAC4	308-250722	18	49	32	-28	-35	-33	13,2	6,6	0.06	Australia
10/17/2024	UCAC4	310-246225	19	4	28	-28	-11	-40	11,8	8	0.06	New Zealand
10/18/2024	UCAC4	310-247330	19	8	1	-28	-5	-9	13,6	6,2	0.06	Australia
10/21/2024	UCAC4	312-242295	19	17	10	-27	-47	0	12,7	7,1	0.06	Japan

Other Didymos events for October-November in XML format for Occult ( ~3000 in total).

See dedicated page for the event on January 21-22, 2023 !

Potential Hera secondary Targets

Date	Asteroid		Star		RA			Dec			Conditions			Zone	Map
Date	Number	Name	Catalogue	Number	h	m	s	d	m	s	Mv	Drop	Duration	Zone	Map
10/09/2024	29886	Randytung	UCAC4	547-038284	7	11	11	19	23	26	13,5	6,1	0.17	North America
10/26/2024	169549	2002 EG105	UCAC4	578-040481	7	33	12	25	31	48	11,9	8,5	0.12	Europe
10/26/2024	169549	2002 EG105	TYC	1915-00508-1	7	34	3	25	32	55	11,2	9,3	0.12	Australia
10/31/2024	29886	Randytung	UCAC4	541-042528	7	38	39	18	2	24	13,6	5,6	0.28	Australia
10/31/2024	54212	2000 HJ89	UCAC4	535-045002	7	55	15	16	49	25	12,8	8,3	0.15	Japan
11/09/2024	29886	Randytung	UCAC4	538-044140	7	46	15	17	33	9	14,1	4,9	0.38	North America
11/12/2024	54212	2000 HJ89	UCAC4	530-045574	8	2	11	15	59	40	14,4	6,5	0.25	Australia

Other Hera events for October-November in XML format for Occult ( ~400 in total).

Other NEAs

Date	Asteroid		Star		RA			Dec			Conditions			Zone	Map
Date	Number	Name	Catalogue	Number	h	m	s	d	m	s	Mv	Drop	Duration	Zone	Map
10/01/2024	4660	Nereus	HIP	86515	17	40	50	-23	-50	-10	7,8	14,9	0.02	Europe
10/05/2024	4179	Toutatis	UCAC4	333-149418	18	16	56	-23	-27	-27	11,6	6,9	0.19	Australia
10/08/2024	137805	1999 YK5	UCAC4	632-044956	9	22	45	36	12	9	12,2	6,5	0.28	North America
10/11/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3859-00325-1	14	16	44	54	24	52	9,6	7	0.21	North America
10/12/2024	438908	2009 XO	TYC	1224-00918-1	2	57	54	16	58	1	10,5	12,9	0.03	North America
10/18/2024	4179	Toutatis	UCAC4	334-181652	18	39	18	-23	-15	-33	13	5,4	0.14	Australia
10/19/2024	4544	Xanthus	UCAC4	285-106709	16	58	26	-33	-7	-49	12,3	6,8	0.08	Australia
10/20/2024	1036	Ganymed	TYC	2221-00942-1	22	50	44	23	47	25	8,5	1	2.08	Australia
10/20/2024	11405	1999 CV3	UCAC4	364-005802	4	38	51	-17	-19	-15	13,1	5,2	0.24	Australia
10/21/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	752-049878	15	6	3	60	18	30	13	3,1	0.22	Japan
10/22/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	4180-00139-1	15	9	50	60	36	53	11,8	4,2	0.22	North America
10/23/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	4181-00454-1	15	15	55	61	4	15	11,6	4,4	0.22	North America
10/28/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	4185-01144-1	15	58	54	63	22	33	10,1	5,6	0.21	Europe
10/30/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	4192-01744-1	16	9	7	63	44	58	11,3	4,3	0.21	North America
11/05/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	4206-00113-1	17	10	59	64	49	31	10,8	4,5	0.20	North America
11/06/2024	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	648-022089	4	47	52	39	35	27	13,4	3,6	0.30	Japan
11/06/2024	175706	1996 FG3	UCAC4	533-051726	10	58	23	16	29	43	10,3	8	0.20	Europe
11/07/2024	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	648-021940	4	47	6	39	35	40	10	7	0.30	Europe
11/07/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	4207-00418-1	17	33	31	64	48	10	9,4	5,7	0.19	North America
11/08/2024	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	649-021573	4	44	37	39	36	7	13,4	3,6	0.29	Europe
11/08/2024	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	649-021435	4	43	36	39	36	11	13,4	1,3	0.29	North America
11/08/2024	175706	1996 FG3	TYC	1428-00508-1	10	50	38	17	15	10	10,5	7,7	0.20	Europe
11/09/2024	175706	1996 FG3	UCAC4	539-049838	10	46	14	17	40	21	12,7	5,3	0.20	Europe
11/12/2024	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	648-020171	4	31	6	39	31	11	13	3,7	0.26	Europe
11/12/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	767-050342	18	42	55	63	20	44	11,9	3	0.18	Europe
11/13/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	4220-01351-1	18	53	43	62	55	25	10,6	4,2	0.17	Europe
11/13/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	765-051990	18	54	47	62	51	57	12	2,8	0.17	Europe
11/14/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	762-050346	19	7	31	62	15	58	12,2	2,6	0.17	Europe
11/15/2024	16	Psyche	TYC	6347-00665-1	21	13	14	-16	-31	-59	11,8	0,6	11.46	Australia
11/15/2024	175706	1996 FG3	UCAC4	550-048968	10	19	42	19	59	56	12,1	5,5	0.21	North America
11/16/2024	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	647-018316	4	18	22	39	16	21	12,5	4	0.24	Japan
11/16/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	755-056106	19	30	26	60	56	20	12,1	2,6	0.17	Europe
11/16/2024	175706	1996 FG3	TYC	1425-01407-1	10	16	6	20	17	29	11,1	6,5	0.21	North America
11/16/2024	175706	1996 FG3	UCAC4	553-047441	10	13	34	20	29	29	11,8	5,7	0.21	Europe
11/17/2024	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	647-018191	4	16	21	39	13	9	13,4	3,1	0.24	North America
11/17/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	4230-01577-1	19	35	26	60	35	37	11,8	2,9	0.17	North America
11/18/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	747-058849	19	52	49	59	17	42	12,6	2,2	0.16	Europe
11/20/2024	175706	1996 FG3	TYC	1418-00752-1	10	0	28	21	29	14	11,4	5,9	0.21	Europe
11/21/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	734-067444	20	19	7	56	47	33	12,6	2,1	0.16	North America
11/21/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	731-067743	20	24	47	56	10	32	12,6	2,1	0.16	Europe
11/21/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	730-067645	20	26	45	55	55	60	12,6	2,1	0.16	Europe
11/22/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3954-02188-1	20	28	56	55	40	59	11,5	3	0.16	North America
11/22/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3954-00767-1	20	29	46	55	34	36	9,3	5,2	0.16	North America
11/22/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3954-01931-1	20	34	18	55	2	53	10,9	3,6	0.16	Europe
11/22/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	725-070248	20	34	50	54	59	14	12,1	2,5	0.16	Europe
11/22/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	725-070336	20	35	15	54	55	47	12,2	2,4	0.16	Europe
11/22/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	725-070374	20	35	29	54	53	44	11,9	2,6	0.16	Europe
11/23/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	723-073835	20	38	26	54	31	11	12,2	2,4	0.15	North America
11/23/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	719-074384	20	44	36	53	42	0	12,6	2	0.15	Europe
11/23/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3951-02573-1	20	45	56	53	30	5	9,9	4,5	0.15	Europe
11/25/2024	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	640-015443	3	46	27	37	58	50	13,5	2,7	0.22	Australia
11/26/2024	175706	1996 FG3	UCAC4	568-046494	9	29	50	23	32	4	11,4	5,6	0.19	Japan
11/27/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3593-02008-1	21	18	54	48	8	42	9,9	4,4	0.15	Europe
11/28/2024	137805	1999 YK5	HIP	52777	10	47	26	45	27	5	10,3	7,9	0.37	North America
11/28/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3593-05093-1	21	22	26	47	26	58	11,7	2,8	0.15	North America
11/28/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	683-106100	21	27	15	46	30	1	12,3	2,2	0.16	Europe
11/28/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	682-103950	21	27	43	46	23	36	12,4	2	0.15	Europe
11/29/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3590-01259-1	21	30	16	45	51	41	10,7	3,6	0.15	North America
11/29/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	676-104153	21	33	48	45	8	24	12,3	2,1	0.15	Europe
11/29/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3195-01639-1	21	34	58	44	51	48	11,5	2,9	0.15	Europe
11/30/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3195-01147-1	21	36	1	44	39	16	11,1	3,2	0.15	North America
11/30/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3195-01431-1	21	36	20	44	34	10	11,2	3,1	0.15	North America
11/30/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	668-104225	21	41	15	43	27	39	11,9	2,5	0.15	Europe
11/30/2024	163899	2003 SD220	TYC	3196-00795-1	21	41	32	43	23	34	10,3	4	0.15	Europe
12/01/2024	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	633-012416	3	25	24	36	35	40	13,6	2,5	0.21	Europe
12/01/2024	163899	2003 SD220	UCAC4	665-105032	21	43	16	42	59	52	12,3	2,2	0.15	North America

Other NEA targets' events for October-Novemberin XML format for Occult (>10000 in total, caution with Occult limit!).